Euphoric Loop

EUPHORIC LOOP – Earnings Report of Yasakawa Electric (6506 JP) – April 21st 2015

Company: Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP) Event: FY15 Results QMG product view: POSITIVE (JA33.3 Industrial process control apparatus) Highlights: • Revenue: JPY400bn – in line with consensus estimates (Toyo Keizai) and +10% yoy • Operating profit: JPY31.5bn – in line with consensus estimates (Toyo Keizai) and +22.7% yoy • Operating margin: +81bps to 7.88% (in line with consensus/corporate guidance) • 2016… Read more →

The Euphoric Loop – 25th February 2015

THE BOSTON BEER CO (SAM US) – Q4/FY 2014 BELOW CONSENSUS ESTIMATES, SHARES -13% We added SHORT SAM to our US Focus List (Link – Q1 Focus List Update) on 1/1/15. At that time, our data across the US Brewers (US15.96) was showing a substantial decline in volumes (-2.9%), implying a much more challenging Q4 sales environment than appeared in… Read more →

The Euphoric Loop – 20th February 2015

FANUC (6954 JP) +15.4% YTD – QMG REMAINS POSITIVE ON JAPANESE ROBOTICS SECTOR (JA33.3) WITH FURTHER UPSIDE POTENTIAL FANUC (6954 JP) +15.4% YTD – QMG REMAINS POSITIVE ON JAPANESE ROBOTICS SECTOR (JA33.3) WITH FURTHER UPSIDE POTENTIAL QMG added LONG Fanuc to our Japanese Focus List (Link – The Japanese riddle – to buy or not to buy?) on 19/11/14. Despite… Read more →

The Euphoric Loop – 19th February 2015

QMG DATA HIGHLIGHTS POSITIVE TRENDS IN US STEEL STOCKS – WATCH NUCOR (NUE US) & US STEEL (X US) We are increasingly positive on US steel stocks and highlight Nucor (NUE US) and US Steel (X US) as two particular names to watch. Although US steel pricing remains weak, recent industry comments suggest that inventory levels will decline in coming… Read more →

The Euphoric Loop – 18th February 2015

ADVANCE AUTO PARTS (AAP US) Q4 EARNINGS MISS – IN LINE WITH QMG’S WEAK DATA ACROSS US AUTO PARTS RETAILERS QMG highlighted the risks to the US auto part retail sector (US50.3) back on 5th January 2015 (Link – Country Focus List Update – United States), adding short positions in Advanced Auto Parts (AAP US) and Genuine Parts Co (GPC… Read more →

Crown Holdings (CCK US) reveals US volume struggle

Earlier this week we highlighted the challenges facing Crown Holdings given the low volume readings that we were seeing in QMG data in the US. CCK reported overnight, and confirmed the performance predictions that arose from our proprietary data sets. Americas sales figures for the third quarter were $570m, as opposed to $583m in the same period last year. Our… Read more →

Euphoric Loop – ASOS, and shopping for online bargains

ASOS (ASC LN) sparked up 15.8% today off additional rumours of a potential takeover. The potential suitor on this occasion is Amazon, whose efforts in online fashion retail to date have been more emporer’s new clothes than sartorial splendour. It’s interesting to read the UBS note that has sent the market into a twirl; it makes it sound like UBS have come up with the idea that Amazon should buy ASOS rather than it originating from the online giant’s boardroom. Consider Zalando’s next steps, and the “bargain” share prices of ASOS and Boohoo (BOO LN) which have fallen heavily YTD, but who have established international distribution. QMG data regarding online retail continues to grow at an electric pace (see UK sales growth above as an example). With fashion, it’s all about the glamour and the romance.

Expect ASOS and Boohoo to get swept off their feet. Read more →