Matter of Fact – w/c 1st June 2015

stock8

1.More on AutoZone’s FQ3

2.Signet misses by $0.01, misses on revenue

3. Michael Kors and Tiffany & Co results

 

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 

  1.     More on AutoZone’s FQ3

Source – Seeking Alpha

Company: AutoZone (AZO US)

QMG product view: Auto Parts Retailers – US50.3

Event: 3Q FY15 Earnings – 26th  May 2015

Highlights:

  • AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) reports same-store sales rose 2.3% in FQ3.
  • Total auto parts sales increased 6.5% to $2.40B.
  • Gross profit rate +30 bps to 52.3% attributable to higher merchandise margins.
  • Operating expense rate +12 bps to 31.64%.

QMGI comment:

  • AZO returned slightly under analyst expectations of +6.7% sales growth for 3Q FY15 YoY. The negative trend our data guiding towards a slight miss on Sales figures.
  • Data we had prior to earnings announcement was from March statistics figures and April figures that came out during the week support the view of negative sales growth.
  • Sales and Margins are at -2.2% and -2.35% for April continuing this negative view on the product group. It is important to remember that our data groups sales of listed equities and other companies that make up the US Auto Parts Retailers space.
  • Whilst the actual sales of AZO is still positive we correctly saw the downward trend that played out in the actual results and it is a trend that is looking to continue based on April figures.

 

  1.     Signet misses by $0.01, misses on revenue

Source – Seeking Alpha

Company: SIGNET Group (SIG LN and SIG US)

QMG product view: Jewellery Retailers – 52.48_4: US and UK

Event: Q1 FY15 Earnings – 28th May 2015

Highlights:

  • FQ1 EPS of $1.62 misses by $0.01
  • Revenue of $1.53B (+44.3% Y/Y) misses by $10M.

QMGI comment:

  • The market was expecting +47% growth YoY for FQ1 and the results turned out to be a miss.
  • Q1 for SIG was a 13 week quarter, so the +3.6% sales number gets an extra week benefit.
  • UK was the stand out business with lfl +6.2% (consistent with QMG +4.5%), BUT entirely wiped out by the stronger USD (-10%) and is very likely to remain a headwind for them (even though UK is only 13% of sales).
  • US looks very weak (our data for April -5.6% sales based on -2.2% vol and -3.4% price). SIG have guided lfl sales at group level to be 2-3% range (low against the +3.6% Q1 result, and i think will be a challenge against what our data is showing for the US and diamond prices which remain very weak (down from c$8100/ct this time last year to c$7100/ct)
  • This is a see through price for consumers, so not like SIG can benefit from keeping prices high, and DEMAND related weakness (ie there is no more diamond supply that has come on)
  • Other consumer discretionary stocks remain better opportunities eg US/UK housebuilders, which trade on closer to 10x forward earnings vs SIG on c20x

 

  1.     Michael Kors and Tiffany & Co results

Source – Bloomberg

Company: Michael Kors (KORS US) and Tiffany & Co (TIF US)

QMG product view: US52.48/4 – Jewellery Retailers

Event: Earnings announcements

Highlights:

  • Tiffany (NYSE:TIF): Q1 EPS of $0.81 beats by $0.11.Revenue of $962M (-4.8% Y/Y) beats by $43.32M.
  • Michael Kors Holdings (NYSE:KORS): FQ4 EPS of $0.90 misses by $0.01.Revenue of $1.08B (+17.7% Y/Y) in-line.

QMGI comment:

Micheal Kors (KORS US) – shares fell -23% after missing EPS and guiding same store sales substantially lower across full year. This comes on the same day that Tiffanys (TIF US) delivers results that beat (pretty low) expectations (and shares improved +11.4%). The read here is that our data has been very negative on jewellery retailing in both US and UK. TIF is a high end brand with global reach, KORS is mid-tier fashion retailer with a US focus. TIF results did show weak Q1 consumer in US (+1%), with Europe being the real boost for them (+17%), Japan was also very bad with sales down 24%). TIF results were not necessarily good, they were just not as bad as expected against pretty low estimates leading to the bounce in shares. For KORS, TIF and SIG (mentioned in story 2) the question remains, if the US consumer is weak are consumers buying more jewellery?

 

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


five − 1 =